The Just-In-Time Paradox
Why people and businesses should spend more time thinking about what they believe they optimise through doing or handling only when the need arises, just-in-time...
In a period of abundance like the one we are living through now, a Just In Case (JIC) approach to life and business can be a dangerous trap. There is no limit to the number of things you could acquire nor to the amount of information available to consume. JIC is not compatible with this level of surplus.
I come from a family of farmers and tinkerers, people who make and mend, and quite importantly, were not rich enough not to do so. JIC was very justified, there would probably always be a need for scrap metal in the workshop, always a brother or cousin to use clothes that were too small, and few things that could not be repaired or be used to repair something else. Keeping everything “Just In Case” made a lot of sense in that context.
Yet, what was true when I was a kid has changed quite dramatically since:
Things are a lot cheaper.
Time is a lot scarcer.
People have a lot less space.
Digital content is infinite.
Everything seems to be available on-demand.
For example, JIC would want you to absorb as much knowledge as possible whilst Wikipedia is now a click away. Up to a point, upper education has many elements of JIC knowledge about a topic of choice…
In the last 20 years, the world shifted to a “Just In Time” paradigm which I believe culminated in 2019. Logistical improvements spearheaded by Amazon have lead consumers to get used to their needs being fulfilled cost effectively within a day, whilst Netflix, Spotify, YouTube and the broader internet, replaced the book, CD, and DVD shelf with a flooding of digital content. Anything and everything was suddenly a click away.
The business world saw a similar transformation with Wework making on-demand offices a viable alternative to long leases, jumping on a Zoom call a faster and cheaper alternative to meeting in person, and Software as a Service the de-facto way to license applications (think about the switch from the old Microsoft and Photoshop perpetual licenses to Office365 and Adobe creative cloud subscriptions). Similarly, cloud computing replaced “tin in the basement”. From office space to computing power, businesses have adopted a JIT ethos, embracing faster scaling and lesser exposure to long term commitments.
It all seemed for the best until Covid caught everyone by surprise early in 2020, and toilet paper became a luxury good overnight. In a matter of weeks, the world’s logistics faltered exposing the fragility of the JIT model. The world realised how reliant it was on products manufactured on the other side of the world, and people turned to their leadership asking why face masks and PEP Kits had not been stored “just in case”. It was a valid question with a complicated answer.
Recently the fires in California have drawn even more attention to the limit of a JIT response (there’s a fire, let’s extinguish it). 60,308 acres and $250 Billions later, controlled burning and forest management JIC suddenly looked like something that should have been done.
JIT can be much more costly than JIC
Practical examples of three things we take for granted:
Water
Electricity
Information
A water tap is the ultimate JIT setup. It has (in our mind) 100% availability and an unlimited supply. Same for electricity or information. Very few people in the UK store water and even fewer have a power generator, whilst the number of families owning a physical encyclopaedia is undoubtedly decreasing judging by how many I have seen in second-hand bookshops. But, there are limits to the JIT approach, if you’ve ever had no water coming out of the tap or a long power cut, you know exactly what I mean.
The limits of JIT
Relying on Wikipedia which is only online. No internet, no information.
Having a physical encyclopaedia at home but not knowing how to use an index (you’d be amazed about how many kids have never used an index).
Knowing that the answer of how to fix your internet access is on the internet…
Knowing that you can use Google maps offline on your phone and being abroad without internet when you realise you need it.
Needing a new employee now and realising that you need a month to hire, two for them to work their notice period and 3 to ramp them up.
Having the skills/knowledge to prepare a slide deck for a client meeting but be out of time.
Waiting for customers to have issues to scale your Support and CSM function.
Etc.
As you can see from the above, the context and timing of a JIT solution matters. The timing of its implementation in relation to the need arising is crucial.
To be really efficient, JIT takes planning.
The timeline is as follows:
Awareness of potential need
Understanding of solutions cost and timing constraints.
JIT planning or JIC implementation
Need arising (maybe)
Why does it matter?
The distinction might seems like a theoretical exercise in terminology but it has great consequences in allocation of resources during strategic and tactical planning.
You have to be aware that some things we do JIC stem from fear, and have an associated cost. At the same time,
not all fears are founded, and resources such as money and time are finite.
In other words:
The need doesn’t always arise
A cost is incurred during the delay between implementation and the need arising.
The cost of JIC can be high (acquisition cost, storage cost, maintenance cost, bandwidth cost, etc…)
When to use JIC?
When not answering the need has a high impact: Carrying an EPI pen if you have a critical allergy. Having defibrillators in public places. For a business to have solid HR policies or a contingency plan.
When the timing of the need is unpredictable: Keeping a set of spare bulbs in your car or a tube/repair-kit when riding a bike. For a SaaS business to setup a redundant architecture in stand-by.
When the cost of JIC is so low that optimising with JIT is pointless: Having spare AA batteries at home, plasters in your bag, a first aid kit in the car, pasta and rice in your pantry, etc. In SaaS, it’s everything like allocating spare storage to a server which theoretically doesn’t need it.
A good example of the concept is a Dashboard Camera. The idea of recording what happens should some incident arise is at first sight 100% JIC. Yet, they are also setup in a JIT manner because they do not keep the recorded data “at vitam eternam”. Most of those cameras have a capacity for about 2 hours and automatically erase what is older and was not needed.
“A lot of JIT requires preparation that looks like JIC”
So JIT looks like having a documented business Continuity Plan. Knowing what needs to happen in case of a high impact issue without actually implementing all the solutions identified.
Another one I encourage is to always be recruiting and looking for new talent even when there is no open headcount. If you wait to be short handed to start writing the job spec, you’ve got a few months of trouble ahead. Hiring under time-pressure rarely leads to good results.
Let’s finish with a light JIT conundrum I recently encountered. I wondered whether it was more cost-effective to just buy the movies we wanted to watch rather than subscribing to numerous content providers (as we do). Subscribing to everything appeared like a simpler and relatively cost-effective solution until I repeatedly found out that none of them had the movie we wanted to see (guilty, I was looking for some old French movies). Fortunately I had held onto physical DVD/BluRay discs, the ultimate JIC solution which does take space and addresses a problem that seldomly arises (how often do you watch a movie you’ve already seen). Yes, I’ll be laughing when Netflix or the internet goes down and I still have my DVD library, but in the meantime I need a bigger house…
Maybe there is wisdom in the old military adage that if you want peace you need to prepare for war? The approach that might provide the best result could be to
“prepare just in case & action just in time”
Food for thoughts.